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Positive Data Trends | Daily Market Update

Positive Trends Send Strong Signals

This week’s Market Signals podcast discusses why positive COVID-19 news, solid small caps performance, high stock valuations, and more positive data trends are sending strong signals for 2021. Watch Market Signals: Positive Trends Send Strong Signals for 2021.

Daily Insights

US stocks open little changed

  • European markets are firmly higher after the European Central Bank stands pat on its pandemic purchase program.
  • Asian markets closed lower after China’s central bank warned about asset bubbles.

Interest rate pattern holding true

  • As of January 22, the 10-year Treasury yield was up 0.4% since the end of March 2020.
  • It’s been advancing about 0.08% per month since the beginning of August 2020.
  • We think the pace of rising rates will slow as buyers attracted by higher yields come into the market.

For more on Treasury yields after large declines, read today’s LPL Research blog.

Strong earnings season so far

Earnings growth for the fourth quarter is tracking to a 5% decline, 6 percentage points ahead of expectations (earnings data source: FactSet).

LPL Research Earnings Seasons Dashboard

Technical update

Stocks took a round trip on Monday, with the S&P 500 Index finishing up 0.4%, approximately where it opened, but also more than 1.4% off its intraday lows. Leadership leaned defensive, with utilities and consumer staples the top performing sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield broke tactical support at 1.07%, falling 5 bps (0.05%) to 1.02%. Next support for yields comes in at 0.98%.

COVID-19 news

The United States reported 133,000 new COVID-19 cases Monday, the lowest since early November, excluding Christmas Day (source: COVID Tracking Project).

  • The 7-day average of new cases has now posted five straight week-over-week declines of 20% or more.
  • 1 million vaccine doses have been administered worldwide as attention begins to shift on developing alternatives for virus variants.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

All index and market data are from FactSet and MarketWatch.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).

Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.

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